Coles Group (COL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Group sales revenue grew 3.4% year-over-year to AUD 10.4 billion in Q3 FY25, with supermarkets up 3.7% and liquor up 3.4%.

• ECommerce sales surged, with supermarkets up 25.7% and liquor up 18.2% year-over-year.

• Investments in value, digital enhancements, and operational efficiency supported growth despite severe weather events impacting supply chains.

• Weather events in Queensland and NSW caused minimal net negative impact on supermarket earnings due to store closures and supply chain costs.

• Full operation of Automated Distribution Centres and Customer Fulfilment Centres improved efficiency and product availability.

Financial highlights

• Supermarket sales increased 3.7% year-over-year to $9.4 billion, with a two-year growth rate of 8.9%.

• Liquor sales revenue up 3.4% to $813 million.

• Exclusive to Coles portfolio sales rose 4.5%, and Coles Finest tier grew 13.7%.

• Supermarket inflation (ex-tobacco) was 1.1%, slightly up from 1% in Q2; meat and fresh produce inflation was elevated, offset by packaged goods deflation.

• eCommerce sales reached $1.06 billion in Supermarkets, with penetration up 198bps year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Supermarket sales growth in early Q4 remains consistent with Q3, with continued volume growth and positive customer response to seasonal offers.

• Liquor sales growth continues, driven by value campaigns and new store additions.

• Dual running costs from supply chain transformation are expected to be fully out of FY25 results, with no further impact in FY26.

• Most Simply Liquorland transformation costs (AUD 7 million in H2 FY25) will be incurred in H1 FY26.

• Focus remains on delivering quality products at affordable prices, leveraging automation and banner simplification.