Commerzbank (CBK) Barclays 24th Annual Global Financial Services Conference summary

M&A and integration roadmap

• UniCredit is set to increase its stake in Commerzbank to just below 49%, with technical consolidation expected by end of this year or early next year.

• Phase I will see UniCredit gain de facto control, influencing supervisory board composition, while Commerzbank remains an independent, publicly listed company.

• Collaboration in Phase I aims to enhance efficiency and revenue, with potential for more ambitious targets for 2028 and 2030.

• Phase II, involving full integration and domestic synergies, requires a 75% AGM majority and is contingent on further shareholder alignment.

• Government alignment is crucial for structural measures, with ongoing discussions between major shareholders.

Strategic and financial targets

• Success is defined by stability for clients and staff, delivery on 2026 targets, and setting new goals for 2028 and 2030.

• Commitment to ongoing business model updates, especially in AI and product innovation, to avoid stagnation.

• NII target for 2026 is €8.6bn, with H1 at €4.1bn; H2 acceleration expected due to interest rate cuts and replication portfolio effects.

• Guidance for NII is considered conservative, with upside potential for 2027 and beyond due to favorable rate movements.

• ROE targets are 12% for this year, 17% for 2028, and 21% for 2030, driven by revenue growth, efficiency, and capital optimization.

Market environment and competition

• German economic indicators are improving, with GDP growth revised to around 1%, but domestic loan growth remains subdued.

• Investment behavior in Germany is cautious, with most loan growth coming from international operations.

• Deposit competition is intense, especially from digital entrants like Chase, targeting rate-sensitive, mobile clients.

• Strategy focuses on attracting and retaining profitable, long-term clients rather than chasing transient deposit inflows.