Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY 2024 ordinary profit was ¥150.8bn, or ¥181.6bn excluding a ¥30.8bn negative inventory valuation impact; adjusted ordinary profit reached a record high.

• Net sales rose 2.6% to ¥2,799.9bn, while operating profit declined 14.0% to ¥128.2bn and profit attributable to owners of parent fell 29.7% to ¥57.7bn.

• FY 2025 ordinary profit is forecast at ¥121bn, or ¥165bn excluding inventory valuation; adjusted profit attributable to owners of parent is forecast at ¥84bn.

Financial highlights

• FY 2024 EBITDA excluding inventory valuation was ¥216.3bn, up ¥11.3bn year over year; EPS on the same basis was ¥925, down ¥17.

• Operating cash flow was ¥137.1bn, investing cash flow -¥145.7bn and free cash flow -¥8.6bn; financing cash flow was -¥69bn, mainly reflecting share buybacks and dividends.

• Capital expenditures rose ¥11.5bn year over year to ¥93.9bn; depreciation expense increased ¥1.9bn to ¥57.2bn.

• Comprehensive income fell 52.1% to ¥47.5bn; cash and cash equivalents at year-end were ¥34.9bn, down from ¥105.5bn.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2025 forecasts net sales of ¥2,580bn, operating profit of ¥123bn, ordinary profit of ¥121bn and profit attributable to owners of parent of ¥53bn; excluding inventory valuation, the latter two are ¥165bn and ¥84bn.

• Assumptions include Dubai crude oil at $65/barrel and ¥145/$; no refinery turnarounds are planned.

• FY 2025 operating cash flow is forecast at ¥187bn, investing cash flow at -¥147bn and free cash flow at ¥40bn.

• Capital expenditures are forecast at ¥148.9bn, up ¥55bn year over year; depreciation expense is forecast at ¥62bn, up ¥4.8bn.

• Annual dividend is planned at ¥330/share.