doValue (DOV) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved €8 billion in new GBV mandates YTD, meeting or exceeding the annual target ahead of schedule, with strong market share in Greece (>90%) and Spain (21%).

• EBITDA excluding non-recurring items reached €95.8–96 million, above management expectations, though down 17–18.3% year-on-year.

• Confirmed 2024 guidance and progressing with Gardant acquisition, expected to close in Q4, supported by a €526 million financing package and a planned €150 million rights issue.

• Net profit turned positive at €10.3 million, a significant improvement from the prior year's loss, aided by non-recurring items and a Spanish tax claim.

• Strategic focus on revenue diversification, with 55% of new mandates in 2024 from non-NPL assets.

Financial highlights

• Gross revenues for nine months were €313.8–316.7 million, down 5.4–6% year-on-year, mainly due to delayed sales in Greece and lower REO revenues in Spain.

• EBITDA margin ex-NRIs at 30.5% (down from 34.4% YoY); net income ex-NRIs at €4.8–5 million.

• Operating expenses stable at €187–192.6 million, with strong cost discipline and 18% reduction in Spain.

• Net debt at €494.5 million, leverage at 3.1x EBITDA, expected to normalize in Q4.

• Earnings per share at €0.67; EPS ex-NRIs at €0.31.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 guidance confirmed: EBITDA €155–165 million, gross revenues €460–480 million, GBV around €115 billion.

• Gardant expected to add €22 billion GBV, €139 million gross revenues, and €50 million EBITDA in 2024; synergies of €15 million targeted by 2026.

• 2026 targets: €8 billion GBV new business per annum, €605–625 million gross revenues, EBITDA ex-NRIs €240–255 million, EBITDA margin ~40%.

• Free cash flow after interest expected at €35–40 million, with leverage targeted at 1.3–1.5x EBITDA (excluding dividends).

• Pipeline of potential servicing mandates for the next 18 months estimated at €33 billion across Southern Europe.