Dover (DOV) Barclays 43rd Annual Industrial Select Conference summary

Macroeconomic and order trends

• Orders accelerated in Q4, providing a strong backlog and positive setup for 2026, with less reliance on economic forecasts than prior years.

• Tariff disruptions in early 2025 caused delays, but the impact was absorbed without major long-term issues.

• Lower interest rates and hard data on orders support a more confident outlook for 2026.

Segment performance and growth drivers

• Clean Energy and Climate & Sustainability are expected to drive the most top-line and profit growth, with Clean Energy benefiting from M&A and a three-year upcycle in Fueling Solutions.

• Climate & Sustainability sees growth from heat exchangers and refrigeration, with significant revenue gains from CO2 systems.

• Vehicle aftermarket remains challenged in Europe but is not expected to be a major headwind.

Pricing, margins, and cost management

• Price increases have been moderate, with unit volume expected to drive revenue growth for the first time in three years.

• Incremental margins are expected to be lower than last year due to a more balanced growth mix, but total portfolio margins should still improve.

• Ongoing restructuring and M&A synergies, especially in cryogenic components, are expected to deliver further cost benefits.