Duke Energy (DUK) Q4 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Reported and adjusted 2025 EPS of $6.31, up from $5.90 in 2024 and above guidance midpoint, with 2026 guidance set at $6.55–$6.80 and a reaffirmed 5–7% long-term EPS growth target through 2030.

• Announced a $103 billion five-year capital plan, up 18% from the prior plan, focused on grid modernization, generation investments, and supporting growing jurisdictions.

• Major asset sales in Tennessee and Florida at premium valuations to strengthen the credit profile and efficiently finance the capital plan.

• Broke ground on 5 GW of new natural gas generation, secured up to 20 gas turbines, and executed EPC contracts for new generation.

• Customer value initiatives included combining DEC & DEP for over $1B in savings, upgrading FL gas plants for $340M in annual fuel cost savings, and generating $600M in nuclear tax credits.

Financial highlights

• 2025 adjusted EPS was $6.31, up 7% from 2024, with a 9.6% earnings base CAGR projected through 2030.

• 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is $6.55–$6.80, with the midpoint at $6.68.

• 2025 capital expenditures totaled $14.5B, with 2026 capex expected to rise to $17.75B.

• FFO to debt reached 14.8% in 2025, with a long-term target of 15%.

• Dividend payout ratio targeted at 60–70%, with a 3.5% dividend yield as of February 2026.

Outlook and guidance

• 2026 adjusted EPS guidance set at $6.55–$6.80, driven by customer growth, rate cases, and economic development.

• 5–7% long-term EPS growth rate reaffirmed, with confidence in achieving the top half (6–7%) starting in 2028.

• 2026–2030 capex plan totals $103B, focused on grid, zero-carbon generation, and hydrogen-capable gas generation.

• Earnings base projected to grow from $113.7B in 2025 to $180B by 2030.

• Load growth acceleration expected as data center projects ramp up from late 2027.