Ecopetrol (EC) Q1 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved highest crude oil production in five years at 745 kboed in 1Q25, supported by operational discipline and efficiency improvements amid global uncertainty and Brent price volatility.

• Advanced energy transition initiatives, supplying 68% of Colombia's gas demand, progressing on regasification and renewable projects, and targeting over 1,000 MW renewable capacity by 2025.

• Approved FID for Gato do Mato in Brazil's Pre-Salt, marking the first development project in the region, with production expected in 2029.

• Maintained financial and operational resilience, with cost and expense reduction initiatives exceeding targets and investment flexibility of USD 500M.

• Board of Directors renewed with increased independence and diversity.

Financial highlights

• Net income for 1Q25 was COP 3.1T; EBITDA reached COP 13.3T with a 42% margin; revenue was COP 31.4T, up 0.2% year-over-year.

• Investments totaled USD 1.2B (COP 5.1T), above the five-year Q1 average, with positive free cash flow and early collection of FEPC balances.

• Dividend payout of 59% (COP 214 per share), within policy, with COP 5.5T paid in April.

• Cash and equivalents at quarter-end were COP 17T; gross debt/EBITDA at 2.2x (1.6x excluding ISA).

• Transportation and transmission contributed 42% of EBITDA, exploration and production 54%, and refining 4%.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 production target reaffirmed at 740–750 kboed, with continued focus on operational resilience and investment in transition energies.

• CapEx plan for 2025 is USD 5.8–6.8B, with USD 500M flexibility to adjust to market conditions.

• Lifting cost target updated to below USD 12/boe for 2025.

• Brent price assumptions for planning are USD 73/bbl, with break-even EBITDA at USD 44/bbl and profit at USD 50/bbl.

• Monitoring market for potential CapEx adjustments if Brent averages below USD 60/bbl for the year.