Ecopetrol (EC) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved highest production in nine years at 1,047 kboed in 3Q 2024, with record refining throughput and strong operational resilience across all segments.

• Revenues for 9M24 reached COP 98.5 trillion, EBITDA COP 42.3 trillion (margin 43%), and net profit COP 11 trillion; normalized net profit was COP 16.4 trillion, up 10% year-over-year.

• Major progress in TESG initiatives, including 253,000 tCO2e reductions and over 341 B COP in sustainable development investments.

• Strong exploratory activity with three successful wells in 2023 declared in 2024, significant offshore gas discoveries, and new agreements in the Caribbean.

• 86% of the annual investment plan was executed by 9M24, and a USD 1.75 billion bond was issued to refinance 2026 maturities.

Financial highlights

• EBITDA for 9M24 was COP 42.3 trillion (margin 43%), with net income for Q3 2024 at COP 3.6 trillion and 9M24 at COP 11 trillion; normalized net income for 9M24 was COP 16.4 trillion, up 10% year-over-year.

• EBITDA margin stood at 43% for 9M24, with ROACE at 11–12% and gross debt/EBITDA at 1.7–2.1x.

• Revenue for 9M24 grew 11% year-over-year, but 3Q24 revenue was down 1.5% year-over-year.

• Cash position at end-3Q24 was COP 18.8 trillion, with operational generation of COP 35.5 trillion.

• CapEx disbursements totaled COP 16.2 trillion (USD 4,062 million); dividend payments reached COP 14.9 trillion.

Outlook and guidance

• Production guidance for 2025 remains at 700,000–750,000 bbls per day, with lifting costs expected between $12–$13 per bbl.

• Investment plan for 2025–2027 exceeds $6 billion annually, maintaining current production and growth targets.

• Renewable energy portfolio is expected to exceed 500 MW by end-2024, with a self-generation target of 900 MW by 2025.

• By 2026, the company will contribute 370 GBTUD of gas, covering 43% of national demand.

• Exploratory investment of ~$1.3B planned for 2024–2026.