Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) 43rd Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference 2025 summary

2024 performance and key drivers

• Achieved $4 billion above initial guidance, with 32% annual growth and 45% Q4 exit growth rate.

• Zepbound and Mounjaro drove strong growth, with Mounjaro becoming the NBRX leader in GLP-1 diabetes.

• Portfolio excluding incretins and GLP-1s is annualizing at $20 billion, growing in the mid-teens.

• Clinical milestones included approvals for sleep apnea, Kisunla in Alzheimer's, and Ebglyss in atopic dermatitis.

• Manufacturing for tirzepatide expanded, increasing saleable units by over 50% in the second half.

Q4 dynamics and 2025 outlook

• Q4 miss attributed to lower-than-expected December GLP-1 sales and lean wholesaler inventory.

• Inventory in the channel is now at 10–11 days, below the typical two weeks.

• 2025 guidance targets 32% growth, with revenue projected at $58–$61 billion.

• Guidance incorporates learnings from 2024, with a $3 billion range to account for tailwinds and uncertainties.

• Key growth drivers include new indications, global expansion, and improved U.S. reimbursement.

Market demand, access, and pricing

• Incretin market demand remains robust, with long-term growth expected as new indications unlock further potential.

• U.S. market is in early innings; weight loss and sleep apnea represent significant untapped opportunities.

• Access for Zepbound and Mounjaro improved, with commercial opt-in rates now above 50% and expected to rise.

• Policy changes may further expand access, especially if obesity drugs are covered as chronic disease in Medicare Part D.

• Pricing remains stable, with no plans for broad discounts unless access expands dramatically.