ERG (ERG) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Completed the shift to a pure wind and solar business with the CCGT sale to Achernar; installed renewable capacity reached 3,266 MW, up 322 MW net YoY.

• FY 2023 adjusted EBITDA rose 4% to €520m, at the upper end of guidance; adjusted continuing-operations profit reached €226m vs €129m.

• Renewable output rose 24% to 6,139 GWh, supported by new capacity and stronger wind, partly offset by lower electricity prices.

Financial highlights

• FY adjusted revenue was €741m vs €714m; adjusted EBITDA was €520m vs €502m; adjusted EBIT was €305m vs €273m.

• Q4 adjusted revenue reached €220m vs €172m; adjusted EBITDA €155m vs €112m; adjusted EBIT €101m vs €49m; adjusted continuing-operations profit €77m vs €14m.

• Adjusted net profit from continuing operations attributable to owners was €226m vs €129m; reported net profit attributable to owners was €179m vs €379m, including CCGT-sale and hydro-sale effects.

• FY operating cash flow was €501m vs €548m; adjusted net financial indebtedness was €1,445m vs €1,434m at year-end 2022.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance is €520–580m, including IFRS 16 and estimated US consolidation from H2; 2023 comparison was €534m including IFRS 16.

• 2024 capex guidance is €550–600m; adjusted net financial indebtedness is projected at €1,750–1,850m, including the €1/share ordinary dividend.

• Capacity is expected to rise by 589 MW, or 18%, to 3,855 MW in FY 2024, including projects under construction and the expected US transaction closing.

• Italy wind and solar EBITDA is expected to increase; overseas wind EBITDA is expected to decline, while overseas solar EBITDA is expected to rise.