ERG (ERG) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2025 was EUR 393 million, up slightly year-on-year; Q3 EBITDA was EUR 119 million, up 9% year-on-year, driven by new capacity and improved wind conditions.

• Adjusted net profit for nine months was EUR 110 million, down from EUR 130 million year-on-year due to higher depreciation and financial charges; Q3 net profit was EUR 27 million, up from EUR 25 million.

• Major capacity additions included the 47 MW Corlacky wind farm in Northern Ireland and the first 12.5 MW BESS plant in Sicily.

• Three new long-term PPAs signed, totaling 1.2 TWh/year, securing revenues for merchant plants; three projects entered FERX auction for 148 MW.

• ESG ratings improved, with Sustainable Fitch at 83 and GRESB score at 98/100.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 revenue was EUR 176 million, up from EUR 156 million in Q3 2024; nine-month revenue was EUR 558 million, up from EUR 542 million.

• EBITDA margin for nine months was 70% (72% in 2024); Q3 margin was 68% (70% in Q3 2024).

• Net financial position at 30 September 2025 was EUR 1,793 million, improving from EUR 1,882 million at end-2024; net financial indebtedness before IFRS 16 at 30 September 2025 was EUR 1,882 million.

• Capital expenditure for the first nine months was EUR 164 million, down from EUR 500 million in 2024; significant M&A activity in France, US, and Scotland.

• Net financial expenses increased to EUR 36 million from EUR 18 million year-on-year.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance confirmed: Adjusted EBITDA expected at EUR 540–600 million, investments at EUR 190–240 million, and net debt at EUR 1,850–1,950 million.

• Wind EBITDA in Italy expected to be stable, with higher GRIN incentive and volumes offset by lower hedged prices.

• Wind EBITDA abroad expected to rise due to new capacity in the US, UK, and France; solar EBITDA abroad expected to decrease slightly due to lower irradiation and prices in Spain.

• 2026 hedging volume at 75%, targeting 80-85% by year-end, with no material change in hedging prices versus 2025.