European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Decision summary

Policy decision and guidance

• Three key rates held unchanged unanimously after the Governing Council debated a hike; stable underlying inflation and uncertainty supported waiting for more information.

• Policy remains data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting, with no pre-commitment to a rate path; decisions reflect the inflation outlook, underlying inflation and monetary policy transmission.

• If the current assessment is not overturned by significant developments, the direction of travel is clear; decisions are not limited to quarterly meetings.

• December brings new staff projections and incoming inflation, GDP, wage, unemployment, industrial production, PMI and bank rate data.

Rates and asset holdings

• Deposit facility, main refinancing operations and marginal lending facility rates remain at 2.50%, 2.65% and 2.90%, respectively.

• APP and PEPP portfolios continue to decline at a measured, predictable pace as principal payments from maturing securities are not reinvested.

Economic activity

• The euro area economy continued to expand in Q3; services recovered, while AI-related investment and infrastructure and defense spending supported activity.

• Higher energy prices weakened consumer confidence and tighter financing is likely to weigh on growth; unemployment was 6.4% in August, with employment and labor force growth subdued.

• Medium-term domestic demand should benefit from recovering confidence and real incomes; stronger foreign demand is expected to support exports.