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European Central Bank (ECB) investor relations material
European Central Bank Monetary Policy Decision summary
Complete event summary combining all related documents: earnings call transcript, report, and slide presentation.Monetary Policy Decision summary11 Sep, 2025
Monetary policy decisions and outlook
Key interest rates remain unchanged, with the deposit facility at 2.00%, main refinancing at 2.15%, and marginal lending at 2.40%; the Governing Council unanimously maintains a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach without pre-committing to a rate path.
Inflation is near the 2% medium-term target, with projections of 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027; underlying inflation is expected to moderate further, with core inflation projected at 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027.
Economic growth is projected at 1.2% for 2025 (up from 0.9%), 1% for 2026, and 1.3% for 2027, reflecting resilience in domestic demand and labor market strength.
The disinflationary process is considered over, with inflation risks now viewed as more balanced compared to previous periods of heightened uncertainty.
Quantitative tightening is proceeding smoothly with limited impact, and interest rates remain the primary tool for monetary policy.
Economic and risk assessment
Domestic demand and labor market resilience support growth, with unemployment at 6.2% and expectations for increased consumer spending as savings rates decline.
Government investment in infrastructure and defense is expected to underpin growth, though higher tariffs, a stronger euro, and global competition may weigh on the outlook.
Risks to growth and inflation are now more balanced, with trade uncertainty having diminished since June, though geopolitical tensions and financial market sentiment remain key sources of uncertainty.
Inflation could be affected by volatile global trade policy, a stronger euro, and potential supply chain fragmentation, while climate-related events may drive up food prices.
Financial and monetary conditions
Short-term market rates have increased, but past rate cuts continue to lower corporate borrowing costs; new loan rates for firms and mortgages have declined or remained stable.
Corporate loan growth and bond issuance have strengthened, and mortgage lending growth has picked up.
Euro area sovereign bond markets are functioning smoothly with good liquidity, and spreads have tightened over the past two years.
Reason for core inflation exceeding headline in 2025?
Why 2025 growth revised up but rates unchanged?
Reconcile 'no pre-commitment' with 2% target.
When does below-target inflation become a concern?
Explain why growth risks are now more balanced
Address justified bond spread disruptions
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Next European Central Bank earnings date
Monetary Policy Decision18 Dec, 2025
Next European Central Bank earnings date
Monetary Policy Decision18 Dec, 2025
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Frequently asked questions
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank for the eurozone, the group of European Union (EU) countries that have adopted the euro as their primary currency. Its main tasks include defining and implementing the monetary policy for the eurozone, conducting foreign exchange operations, holding and managing the official foreign reserves of the eurozone countries, and promoting the smooth operation of payment systems. The ECB aims to maintain price stability within the eurozone, seeking to keep inflation under control. It does not directly offer banking services to the public or companies but rather influences the economic environment through the management of interest rates and the supply of money. The ECB also plays a crucial role in banking supervision, working alongside national supervisory authorities to ensure the stability and solidity of the banking system. The European Central Bank is headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany.
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