Exasol (EXL) Q3 2026 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 ARR was €37.9m vs. €38.3m a year earlier; new customers and lower churn largely offset weaker upselling.

• 9M revenue declined mainly because 9M 2025 included exceptionally high one-off hardware and service revenue; recurring revenue was slightly lower YoY.

Financial highlights

• 9M revenue was €28.7m vs. €31.7m, down 9.5%; recurring revenue was €28.0m vs. €28.5m and non-recurring revenue €0.7m vs. €3.2m.

• Q3 revenue was €9.7m vs. €10.2m, down 5%; gross margin was €8.7m vs. €8.9m.

• 9M EBITDA was €2.7m vs. €3.0m and net income €2.3m vs. €2.1m; Q3 EBITDA was €1.1m vs. €1.0m and net income €1.1m vs. €0.7m.

• Q3 new business of €1.1m was offset by a €0.9m contractual MariaDB downsell; net ARR was flat, including €0.5m growth in focus verticals and €0.5m churn in non-focus verticals.

• Net liquid funds were €20.6m at Q3-end, vs. €17.7m a year earlier; 12-month cash conversion remained close to 1x EBITDA.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2026 guidance was confirmed: ARR change of -2% to +2% vs. Dec. 31, 2025, revenue decline in the upper-single-digit range, and EBITDA of €3.0m–€3.5m; management expects the upper end.

• Year-end 2026 churn is expected at 10%; Q1 2027 churn is expected to rise temporarily above 20% on mid-single-digit-million-euro contract cancellations and adjustments.

• FY2027 churn is expected at 17%–20%, with Q2–Q4 churn significantly lower; FY2027 guidance is due with FY2026 results in February.

• Q1 2027 is expected to be a net ARR decline quarter, with profitability maintained; new business and existing-customer spending recovery are intended to support growth thereafter.

• FY2027 priorities include volume upsell, agentic AI cross-selling, partner wins and product-led growth; focus-industry share of ARR is expected to reach 77%–80% after Q1 churn consolidation.