Fertiglobe (FERTIGLB) Q1 2025 & CMD earnings summary

Executive summary

• Launched GROW 2030 strategy targeting $1B+ EBITDA by 2030, leveraging operational excellence, customer proximity, product expansion, and disciplined low-carbon ammonia growth, with ADNOC now holding 86.2% ownership and providing strategic and financial support.

• Fertiglobe is the world's largest seaborne exporter of ammonia and urea, with 6.6 million tons production capacity across UAE, Egypt, and Algeria.

• Q1 2025 results: revenue up 26% year-on-year to USD 694.9 million, adjusted EBITDA up 45% year-on-year to USD 261.4 million, and free cash flow of $213M (80% EBITDA conversion).

• Focus on safety culture, achieving 12 months with no reportable incidents and 10 million safe man-hours.

• Shareholders approved USD 125 million in dividends for H2 2024 and a share buyback of up to 2.5% in April 2025.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2025 revenue increased 26% year-on-year to USD 694.9 million; adjusted EBITDA reached $261M, up 45% year-on-year and 65% quarter-on-quarter.

• Net profit for Q1 2025 was USD 115.3 million, down 25% year-on-year due to a prior one-off FX gain.

• Ammonia sales up 34% year-on-year; urea volumes at 1.1M tons, with urea prices at $425/ton and ammonia at $346/ton.

• Free cash flow for Q1 was $213M, with major outflows for interest, tax, and maintenance CapEx.

• EBITDA margins and cash conversion rates significantly above peer averages, with EBITDA margin 8pp above peers and 80% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion.

Outlook and guidance

• Targeting $1B+ EBITDA by 2030, with $340M-$420M incremental EBITDA from strategic initiatives at 2024 prices.

• Project Harvest and Egypt Green expected to contribute $70M-$100M EBITDA; Rabdan and Exxon Baytown projects not included in current guidance.

• Maintenance CapEx to peak in 2025-2026, then decline to $105M-$125M from 2027.

• Dividend policy to return substantially all cash after growth and investment-grade leverage is maintained.

• Directors confirm adequate resources for continued operations and maintain a going concern basis.