Fertiglobe (FERTIGLB) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2023 revenue was $645.9m, adjusted EBITDA $289.2m and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders $102.5m; FY 2023 figures were $2,416.2m, $1,003.7m and $363.0m, respectively.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose 45% QoQ in Q4; own-produced sales volumes increased 15% YoY in Q4 and 5% for FY 2023.

• Cost optimization delivered $25m of run-rate savings by year-end 2023, on track toward the $50m target by end-2024.

Financial highlights

• Q4 revenue fell 39% YoY and adjusted EBITDA fell 39%; FY revenue declined 52% and adjusted EBITDA 59%.

• Q4 revenue rose 23% QoQ and adjusted net profit increased 149% QoQ.

• FY reported net profit attributable to shareholders was $348.9m, down 72% YoY; adjusted net profit was $363.0m, also down 72%.

• Cash capex, excluding growth expenditure, was $23m in Q4 and $94m in FY 2023; total capex was $34.3m and $114.6m, respectively.

Outlook and guidance

• 2024 cash capex guidance, excluding growth expenditure, remained $110m–$130m; the cost program targets $50m of run-rate savings by end-2024.

• The Manufacturing Improvement Plan targets at least $100m of incremental annual EBITDA by 2025 vs. 2023 through production and energy efficiency improvements.

• Demand was expected to recover ahead of the Northern Hemisphere spring application season, with healthy demand also expected in Brazil and Australia.

• Medium- to long-term nitrogen markets are expected to benefit from limited capacity additions and healthy demand growth.