First Watch Restaurant Group (FWRG) Investor Day 2026 summary

Strategic position and track record

• Strategic North Star is to “own the morning” through a differentiated, fresh, made-to-order concept and disciplined growth; the long-term destination remains 2,200+ restaurants.

• Footprint exceeds 680 restaurants across 33 states; daytime dining represents 75%+ of the segment, with a 9.0% five-year CAGR as legacy breakfast declined 1.6%.

• From 2022–2025, revenue CAGR was 18.7%, Adjusted EBITDA CAGR 20.4%, unit growth 10.1%, and same-restaurant sales growth averaged 3.5%; G&A leverage was 110 bps.

• AUV grew from $1.8M in 2021 to $2.3M; cumulative company-owned new restaurant sales since IPO reached $1B.

Financial framework and guidance

• Through 2028, targets are 2%–4% same-restaurant sales growth, including positive underlying traffic net of planned sales transfer, and 10%–13% total revenue growth.

• Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to exceed 15% in 2027 and 2028, outpacing revenue growth through restaurant productivity and G&A leverage.

• Positive free cash flow is expected to begin in 2027 and increase annually; G&A growth is planned below revenue growth.

• The financial algorithm combines unit growth, positive traffic, faster new-restaurant maturation and G&A discipline to support 15%+ Adjusted EBITDA growth and rising free cash flow.

Capital allocation

• Growth shifts from investment-led scaling to a more balanced, increasingly self-funded approach, while retaining the long-term restaurant ambition.

• Priorities are financial flexibility and liquidity, high-return growth and productivity investments, then directing incremental free cash flow to its highest risk-adjusted use.

• Rising free cash flow is intended to reduce net leverage toward ~1x or below, strengthening resilience and preserving capacity for attractive opportunities.

• From 2027, cash flow is expected to self-fund organic growth and maintenance capex; a measured opening pace balances growth, cash generation and capital-allocation flexibility.