FiscalNote (NOTE) Status update summary

Market opportunity and strategic alignment

• Rapid changes in information consumption are creating new markets for data-driven insights, with prediction markets emerging as a significant opportunity.

• Expansion into political prediction markets leverages existing strengths in data, analysis, and domain expertise.

• Prediction markets are evolving from fragmented, crypto-dominated spaces to regulated, high-liquidity environments.

• Regulatory shifts, especially CFTC actions, have enabled significant growth and institutional interest.

• Partnerships, such as with 365Prediction, are key to scaling and leveraging complementary capabilities.

Market growth and dynamics

• U.S. prediction market trading volume is projected to reach $44 billion in 2025, with political markets accounting for $7.2 billion.

• Growth is driven by high-profile events and regulatory changes, with political contracts attracting higher capital than sports.

• Institutional involvement and integration into professional workflows are increasing.

• Market design, transparency, and enforcement are critical for credibility and long-term success.

Differentiation and product vision

• Combining deep political expertise with iGaming experience aims to create a unique, AI-driven product that addresses current market gaps.

• Focus on credibility, trust, and robust market creation/resolution to differentiate from existing players.

• Plans include innovative features like advocacy-driven markets, allowing participants to support causes while trading.

• Existing relationships with advocacy organizations provide a strong foundation for user engagement.