GFL Environmental (GFL) Q2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record Q2 wage-adjusted dividend margins of 34.7%, the highest in company history, with results ahead of expectations despite FX and commodity headwinds.

• Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow all exceeded expectations, driven by strong organic price and volume growth, margin expansion, and intentional shedding of lower-quality revenue.

• Net income from continuing operations turned positive at $274.2 million for Q2 2025, compared to a net loss of $531.9 million in Q2 2024.

• Completed three tuck-in acquisitions in the quarter, with three more anticipated, supporting robust M&A pipeline and future growth; $105 million in annualized revenue added and 3.47 million shares repurchased.

• Increased full-year guidance for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and margin expansion.

Financial highlights

• Q2 2025 revenue was $1,675.2 million (CAD 1.675 billion), up 9.5% year-over-year pro forma for divestitures; Adjusted EBITDA rose 14.6% to $515.1 million, with margin up 230 bps to 30.7%.

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow for Q2 2025 was $137.1 million, exceeding plan due to EBITDA outperformance and CapEx timing.

• For the first half of 2025, revenue reached $3,235.3 million, Adjusted EBITDA was $941.2 million, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $150.8 million.

• Pricing for the quarter was 5.8%, 30 basis points ahead of plan; full-year pricing now expected at 5.5% to 5.75%.

• Net CapEx for the year expected at approximately CAD 750 million, reflecting a strategic property acquisition.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year 2025 revenue guidance raised to $6,550–$6,575 million (CAD 6.55–6.575 billion), with Adjusted EBITDA guidance increased to $1,950–$1,975 million and margin expected to expand by 120 bps to 29.9%.

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow guidance reaffirmed at approximately $750 million; net leverage expected in the low 3.0x range by year-end.

• Q3 2025 revenue expected at CAD 1.69–1.695 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of CAD 525 million and margin of about 31%.

• Q3 adjusted free cash flow projected at CAD 175 million.

• Guidance assumes current commodity, RIN prices, and macro environment persist; improvements would provide upside.