GFL Environmental (GFL) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6% in Q3 2025, the highest in company history, up 90 bps year-over-year, with revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow all exceeding expectations despite macroeconomic and commodity headwinds.

• Consolidated revenue grew 9% year-over-year, driven by strong pricing (6.3%) and positive volume growth, especially in Canada, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of positive volume.

• Raised full-year 2025 guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the second time, reflecting continued operational outperformance and successful M&A execution.

• Significant share repurchases totaling $2.8 billion year-to-date, representing over 10% of issued and outstanding subordinate voting shares, with continued focus on opportunistic buybacks.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 revenue was $1,694.2 million, up 9.0% year-over-year, with 6.3% from core pricing and 1.0% from positive volume.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 12.0% to $535.1 million in Q3 2025; adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 31.6% from 30.7% in Q3 2024.

• Adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $181 million, ahead of plan due to EBITDA outperformance and CapEx timing.

• Full-year revenue guidance raised to $6.575–$6.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA to $1.975 billion, nearly 3% above original guidance.

• Net income from continuing operations was $108.1 million in Q3 2025, up from $41.6 million in Q3 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• Expect full-year pricing of 6% and positive volume growth, with incremental M&A and EPR ramping providing tailwinds into 2026.

• 2026 setup includes 75 basis points of incremental revenue growth from EPR and significant M&A rollover, supporting double-digit EBITDA growth.

• Pricing for 2026 expected to be closer to 5% as EPR benefits shift from price to volume.

• Cost inflation for 2026 anticipated to start with a 4%, driven by labor and benefit costs.

• Net leverage expected in the low-to-mid 3.0x range by year-end 2025.