Global Blue Group (GB) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Revenue increased 36% year-over-year to €422 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 91% to €149 million, achieving a 35.2% margin and 64% drop-through.

• Net leverage ratio improved to 3.4x from 6.5x, with debt maturity extended to 2030 after refinancing.

• Tax Free Shopping recovery accelerated, with Continental Europe at 141% and APAC at 223% of pre-pandemic levels in April/May, driven by international shoppers, especially from Mainland China.

• Strategic digitalization and commercial initiatives improved the Success Ratio to 56% and net retention to 102.8%, supporting market share gains.

• Long-term targets reconfirmed: EBITDA over €200 million for 2024-2025, revenue growth of 8%-12%, and leverage below 2.5x.

Financial highlights

• Q4 revenue rose 21% year-over-year to €105 million; adjusted EBITDA increased 60% to €34 million, with a margin of 32.2%.

• Full-year revenue reached €422 million, up 36%; adjusted EBITDA was €149 million, up 91%, with a 64% drop-through.

• Adjusted net income improved to €27 million from a loss of €8 million last year.

• Pre-tax and leveraged free cash flow was €95 million, turning positive for the first time since COVID.

• Net finance costs increased by €13.7 million due to higher interest rates, partially offset by lower other finance costs.

Outlook and guidance

• EBITDA target for 2024-2025 is over €200 million, with CapEx of €40-45 million, mostly for capitalized software.

• Long-term revenue growth guidance is 8%-12% annually, with a drop-through of at least 50% and leverage below 2.5x.

• Net working capital expected to be neutral annually from 2025-2026.

• Effective tax rate projected to decrease to 24%-26% as EBITDA grows.