Graphic Packaging Company (GPK) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 net sales were $2,190 million, down 1% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $383 million (17.5% margin) and adjusted EPS of $0.58; volumes declined 2% due to affordability pressures and weaker beverage and foodservice segments.

• The Waco, Texas recycled paperboard facility produced its first saleable roll ahead of schedule, completing Vision 2025 and enabling a shift to Vision 2030 focused on free cash flow and innovation.

• Innovation continues to drive new market opportunities, with a target of at least 2% innovation sales growth in 2025 and expansion into produce, protein, and sustainable packaging.

• Market conditions remain challenging, with consumer affordability pressures, unpredictable order flows, and weaker beverage and foodservice segments.

Financial highlights

• Q3 2025 net sales were $2,190 million, adjusted EBITDA was $383 million (17.5% margin), and adjusted EPS was $0.58, all down from the prior year.

• Net income for Q3 2025 was $142 million ($0.48 per diluted share), down from $165 million ($0.55 per diluted share) in Q3 2024.

• Volumes declined 2% year-over-year, outperforming most served markets.

• $150 million was used to repurchase 6.8 million shares YTD, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025.

• Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $267 million, down from $313 million in Q3 2024.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: Net sales of $8.4–$8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.40–$1.45 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.80–$2.00; volume expected flat to down 1%.

• Guidance revised to reflect year-to-date performance and high market uncertainty.

• Targeted free cash flow for 2026 is $700 million–$800 million, driven by reduced CapEx and inventory.

• Year-end 2025 net leverage expected between 3.5x and 3.7x.

• Focus remains on cost control, inventory reduction, and SG&A optimization.