Graphic Packaging Company (GPK) investor relations material

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 net sales were $2.19 billion, down 1% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA of $383 million (17.5% margin) and adjusted EPS of $0.58, reflecting strong execution despite challenging consumer and grocery volumes, affordability pressures, and weaker beverage and foodservice segments.

• Innovation sales growth contributed $52 million in Q3, opening new markets and offsetting volume challenges, with a target of at least 2% innovation sales growth in 2025.

• The Waco, Texas recycled paperboard facility began commercial production ahead of schedule, marking the completion of the Vision 2025 transformation and providing a long-term competitive advantage.

• Leadership transition: Steve Scherger, long-time CFO, is departing, with Chuck Leisher stepping in as Interim CFO.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA margin was 17.5% in Q3 2025, down from 19.5% in Q3 2024, with net income at $142 million and adjusted net income at $172 million.

• Net leverage ratio increased to 3.9x in Q3 2025 from 3.1x year-over-year, and net debt rose to $5,821 million.

• $150 million was used to repurchase 6.8 million shares YTD, reducing shares outstanding by 2.3% in 2025; approximately 24% of shares have been repurchased since 2018.

• Capital expenditures in Q3 2025 were $267 million, with year-to-date spending at $808 million, primarily for the Waco facility.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 guidance: Net sales of $8.4–$8.6 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1.4–$1.45 billion, and adjusted EPS of $1.80–$2.00; volume expected to be flat to down 1%.

• Guidance was modestly revised to reflect current performance and high market uncertainty, with a focus on cost control, inventory reduction, and SG&A optimization.

• Free cash flow is projected at $700 million–$800 million in 2026, driven by lower capital spending and inventory reductions.

• Year-end 2025 net leverage expected between 3.5x and 3.7x.