Greencoat Renewables (GRP) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 2025 results were impacted by a 10% drop in wind generation, leading to a significant revenue decline year-over-year.

• Net cash generation of €115 million in 2025 supported a resilient 1.5x net dividend cover.

• Announced a €100 million share buyback program and the launch of a green energy data center platform.

• Strategic focus is on narrowing the discount to NAV, deploying capital into value-accretive growth, and maintaining an attractive dividend.

• Over 80% of 2025 revenue was contracted, providing predictable cashflows.

Financial highlights

• Revenue for 2025 was €296 million, down €61 million from 2024, mainly due to lower wind generation and changes in tariff/geographical mix.

• EBITDA reached €158 million despite challenging conditions, a 24% year-over-year decline.

• Net assets decreased 10% to €1,102 million; NAV per share declined 9.9% to 99.0c.

• Dividend payments totaled €76 million, with net dividend cover at 1.5x.

• Net cash generation was €115 million, a 19% decrease from 2024, supporting a 1.5x net dividend cover.

Outlook and guidance

• Dividend cover expected to average 1.6x over the next five years, with a temporary dip to 1.2x in 2026 due to lower forward pricing and asset disposals.

• Illustrative 5-year dividend cover projected at 1.6x, with €600 million cash generation potential from 2026–2030.

• Dividend expected to remain stable, underpinned by strong contracted revenues (76% contracted through 2030).

• Plans to accelerate deleveraging to reach a 45% gearing target by 2027.

• Capital deployment for growth initiatives will scale up from 2028-2029, focusing on self-funding through disposals and organic cash.