Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) H2 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Management reported strong 2025 results with #1.231trn PBT, robust dividend payout, and high-quality earnings, emphasizing a conservative risk posture and agile asset allocation across placements, investment securities, and loans.

• Total assets grew 20% to #17.76trn, deposits up 24%, and loans up 12.4% year-over-year, reflecting robust balance sheet expansion.

• Strategic growth remains organic, with Nigeria as the core market, expanding in West Africa, East Africa, and the UK, and scaling non-banking subsidiaries.

• Technology adoption and POS strategy are driving deposit growth and operational efficiency, with 3.1 million digital users and significant monthly POS collections.

• Share price rose 59.1% year-over-year, underscoring investor confidence.

Financial highlights

• Loan growth guidance for 2026 is 25%, with deposit growth targeted at 40%; loan-to-deposit ratio expected to rise from 24% to 35%.

• Dividend payout ratio increased to over 50%, supported by improved earnings quality and absence of non-cash revaluation gains.

• NIM closed at 12.3% in 2025, with 2026 guidance at 11% to reflect anticipated lower interest rates.

• Cost-to-income ratio remained low at 27.9%, despite a 17.9% increase in operating expenses.

• ROE guidance is 30%, with 28% post-tax ROE and 40% pre-tax ROE achieved in 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2026 PBT guidance set at #1.4trn, with deposit growth of 25% and loan growth of 12.4%.

• Management expects elevated interest rates through June 2026, with possible moderation in the second half.

• Loan growth will be pursued only if risk and pricing are appropriate, with a focus on retail and SME segments.

• Non-banking subsidiaries, especially payments and asset management, are expected to grow to 3% of group profits.

• No plans to issue Eurobonds; sufficient dollar liquidity is available.