Heineken Holding (HEIO) Q1 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Net revenue grew 0.9% organically to €6.5 billion in Q1 2025, despite a challenging consumer and geopolitical environment, with beer volume declining 2.1% organically due to calendar effects like early Tet and late Easter.

• Premium portfolio and Heineken brand led growth, with Heineken up 4.6% and premium beer volume up 1.8%; share gains or maintenance in over half of markets.

• Strong volume growth in Vietnam, India, and Ethiopia; Brazil, China, and Nigeria outperformed with significant share gains.

• Macroeconomic volatility, inflation, and currency devaluations impacted results, but full-year outlook for 4%-8% organic operating profit growth is confirmed.

• First quarter 2025 revenue was €7,784 million, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the same quarter last year.

Financial highlights

• Net revenue BEIA: €6.5 billion, up 0.9% organically; net revenue BEIA per hectoliter up 3.3% due to pricing actions.

• Beer volume down 2.1% organically; total consolidated volume down 2.4% due to soft drinks decline in Africa.

• Premium beer volume up 1.8%; Heineken brand up 4.6%.

• Foreign currency translation had a negative €345 million impact, mainly from euro appreciation against key currencies including the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, and Ethiopian Birr.

• eB2B platforms captured €3.1 billion in gross merchandise value, up 16% organically year-over-year.

Outlook and guidance

• Full-year guidance for 4%-8% organic growth in operating profit BEIA reaffirmed; other guidance elements unchanged.

• Management remains cautious due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, including inflation, weak consumer sentiment, and tariffs.

• Scenario planning and risk management have been enhanced to address volatility and enable agile capital allocation.

• Calculated negative translational impact for the full year estimated at €1,720 million in net revenue (beia), €320 million in operating profit (beia), and €180 million in net profit (beia) if current spot rates persist.