IDP Education (IEL) Status Update summary

Market environment and trading update

• Most major policy changes in key international education markets have now been implemented, leading to a clearer short-term outlook, with synchronized tightening in Australia, the UK, and Canada.

• Visa approval rates in Australia, Canada, and the UK fell 20%-30% in Q1 2024 versus the prior year, impacting student placement and testing volumes.

• Student placement volumes for FY 2024 are expected to rise 15%-20% year-on-year, though growth will slow in the second half due to policy disruptions, especially in Canada and the UK.

• IELTS volumes are forecast to decline 15%-20% in FY 2024, with the largest impact in South Asia, particularly India, due to regulatory uncertainty and higher visa rejection rates.

• Other business lines, such as English language teaching and support services, continue to perform well, and average fee growth remains strong across student placements and IELTS.

Financial outlook and guidance

• Adjusted EBIT for FY 2024 is expected to be broadly in line with FY 2023, supported by disciplined cost controls and fee growth.

• The aggregate international education market is projected to contract by 20%-25% in FY 2025, assuming no further policy changes.

• Volumes for both student placement and IELTS are expected to decline in FY 2025, but both business lines are anticipated to outperform the broader market.

• Cost reduction measures include a 6% reduction in staff, mainly in non-revenue generating roles, and cuts in discretionary spending such as travel and consultancy.

• Ongoing CapEx will support digital product innovation and expansion in high-growth markets.

Strategic positioning and market share

• Focus areas include increasing student placement market share, advancing digital product innovation, and disciplined cost management.

• Market share gains are driven by a strong client portfolio, a flight to quality in source markets, and unique service offerings.

• The company is well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and a shift toward quality, as policy changes target less scrupulous players.

• U.S. market is showing strong growth potential, with new client signings and higher per-student fees, though it will not offset declines in established markets in the short term.

• Product innovation initiatives like FastLane and Peer Community are expected to support future market share and growth.