InPost (INPST) H1 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q2 2024 parcel volume grew 23% year-over-year to 264.4 million, with revenue up 22.5% to PLN 2,623 million and Adjusted EBITDA margin at 33.8%.

• Poland saw 20% parcel volume growth and 22% revenue growth, maintaining high network utilization and a 46.2% Adjusted EBITDA margin.

• International segment volume rose 29% year-over-year, with revenue up 27% in local currency and Adjusted EBITDA margin improving to 15%.

• UK and Italy reported 119% parcel volume growth and 133% revenue growth, with segment Adjusted EBITDA margin turning positive at 10.4%.

• Continued expansion of the pan-European out-of-home network, deploying a record number of APMs and lockers, with over 73,000 points and 40,000+ APMs.

Financial highlights

• Group Adjusted EBITDA increased 28.6% year-over-year to PLN 887.3 million in Q2 2024, with margin at 33.8%.

• Net profit from continuing operations rose 163% year-over-year in Q2 2024 to PLN 336.4 million, with margin up to 12.8%.

• Free cash flow in Q2 2024 was PLN 154.1 million; H1 2024 FCF reached PLN 367.3 million (+74.7% YoY).

• Capex rose 39.9% year-over-year to PLN 342 million in Q2 2024; H1 2024 capex totaled PLN 587.8 million (+25.8% YoY).

• Net leverage reduced to 1.95x at end-Q2 2024, down from 2.22x at end-2023.

Outlook and guidance

• FY 2024 outlook: high single-digit to low double-digit e-commerce market volume growth in Poland; negative to mid-single-digit in France and UK.

• Group parcel volume and revenue expected to outperform market, with revenue growth exceeding volume by low to mid-single digits.

• Adjusted EBITDA margin in Poland to stabilize at mid-40s; international margin to rise to low double digits.

• FY 2024 capex expected at ~PLN 1.3 billion, with positive Group FCF and continued deleveraging.

• Q3 2024 group volume growth running at ~20%, with Poland in mid-to-high teens and international similar to Q2.