IRPC (IRPC) Q3 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 3Q24 and 9M24 saw significantly reduced profitability due to weak petroleum and petrochemical markets, with net inventory losses and lower product spreads impacting results.

• Net sales in 3Q24 were Baht 69,964 million, down 6% QoQ and 9% YoY, mainly due to lower average selling prices despite higher sales volumes in some segments.

• Operational reliability remained high, but cost pressures, one-time employee expenses, and increased depreciation from the Ultra Clean Fuel project weighed on margins.

• Strategic focus on cost control, asset management, and specialty petrochemicals continues, with sustainability and new growth engines prioritized.

• Gains from financial derivatives and investment income partially offset losses.

Financial highlights

• 9M24 net income was 1,275 MB, down 84% year-over-year; 3Q24 net loss exceeded 4,800 MB.

• 3Q24 EBITDA loss was Baht 4,843 million, with net loss of Baht 4,880 million; 9M24 net loss was Baht 4,068 million.

• 9M24 Market GIM dropped 27% year-over-year to $6.68/bbl; 3Q24 Market GIM was $5.72/bbl.

• Net sales for 9M24 declined 2% year-over-year to 218,674 MB.

• Net inventory loss for 9M24 was 0.68 $/bbl, with significant stock loss and NRV impacts.

Outlook and guidance

• Petroleum product spreads are forecast to remain soft in 4Q24 and 2025, with Dubai crude expected at $70–74/bbl.

• Crude oil demand expected to slightly improve in 4Q24, but prices face uncertainties from geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production, and China's economy.

• Petrochemical spreads are expected to recover modestly, supported by demand in packaging, construction, and automotive sectors, with seasonal restocking and Chinese stimulus aiding recovery.

• Ongoing OPEX control, asset monetization, and specialty petrochemical focus are key near-term priorities.