IRPC (IRPC) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• 3Q25 saw a significant turnaround with net income of 340 MB and EBITDA of 3,029 MB, both up over 100% quarter-over-quarter, driven by improved gross refining margins and inventory gains.

• Net sales in 3Q25 were Baht 57,938 million, up 2% sequentially but down 17% year-over-year due to lower crude prices and sales volume.

• Sustainability achievements included multiple environmental and human rights awards, and continued progress on decarbonization targets.

• For 9M25, net sales were Baht 176,964 million, down 19% year-over-year, with a net loss of Baht 2,998 million, an improvement from a net loss of Baht 4,068 million in 9M24.

Financial highlights

• Market GIM in 3Q25 was Baht 5,493 million (USD 9.04/bbl), up 7% QoQ and 50% YoY, mainly due to higher gas oil and lube base oil spreads and lower crude premiums.

• Accounting GIM in 3Q25 was Baht 5,995 million (USD 9.87/bbl), up 87% sequentially and a turnaround from a loss in 3Q24.

• EBITDA for 3Q25 was 3,029 MB, up over 100% QoQ; 9M25 EBITDA was 4,848 MB, up over 100% YoY.

• Net income for 3Q25 was 340 MB, a reversal from losses in prior quarters; 9M25 net income was 1,275 MB, up 26% YoY.

• Net inventory gain in 3Q25 was Baht 502 million, compared to losses in prior periods.

Outlook and guidance

• 4Q25 and 2026 forecasts expect stable to slightly lower Dubai crude prices ($63–69/bbl) and continued volatility in product spreads due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

• Oil demand faces challenges from global economic conditions but is seasonally supported by winter and year-end festivals.

• Petrochemical demand expected to remain stable or slightly decline, with recovery anticipated late-3Q to early-4Q.

• Oversupply in petrochemicals is expected to persist, pressuring spreads, but seasonal demand and government stimulus may provide some support.

• Strategic focus remains on asset monetization, operational excellence, and decarbonization, targeting net zero by 2050.