Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Q3 2025 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Consolidated revenue grew 20% YoY and net income rose 12% YoY in 3Q 2025, with underlying growth (excluding smartphones, regulatory/tax changes, and base rate hike) at 23% and 21% respectively.

• Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech platforms all delivered double-digit growth, with Marketplace revenue outpacing GMV due to strong advertising, delivery, and e-Grocery.

• Smartphone GMV recovery is delayed to 2026 due to iPhone supply shortages and new registration requirements.

• Customer engagement remains robust, with 76 monthly transactions per active consumer.

• $100 million ADS buyback program to commence in November 2025, reflecting confidence in future performance.

Financial highlights

• 3Q 2025 consolidated revenue (excl. Türkiye) reached KZT797B (+20% YoY); net income KZT307B (+12% YoY).

• Payments TPV up 18% YoY in 3Q; revenue up 10% and net income up 12% in 3Q.

• Marketplace revenue up 24% YoY in 3Q (32% ex-smartphones); take rate at all-time high 10.3%.

• Fintech revenue up 24% YoY in 3Q; net income up 15% YoY (28% adjusted for rate changes); loan portfolio up 30%.

• Hepsiburada (Türkiye) GMV up 15% YoY in 3Q; revenue up 22% YoY, but EBITDA down 74% YoY due to investments.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 net income growth in Kazakhstan expected at 10-12% YoY due to smartphone supply disruption and high base rate.

• Underlying net income growth (excluding external factors) expected at 18-20% YoY, in line with prior guidance.

• Marketplace GMV growth guided at 19%-21%, TPV payment growth around 20%, TFV fintech growth around 15-20%.

• Smartphone GMV normalization and favorable comps expected from March 2026.

• $100M ADS buyback to commence in November 2025; future capital returns to balance buybacks, dividends, and growth investments.