JPMorganChase (JPM) The BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference 2026 summary

Rates and balance-sheet strategy

• Market pricing of just over two hikes by end-2027 was within a credible range, though rate risks remained tilted upward; the medium-term neutral rate mattered more than 2027 policy outcomes.

• Medium-term rate forwards rose to 5% from 3% four years earlier, reflecting a higher-growth, investment and inflation environment, and a higher neutral-rate outlook.

• Duration strategy was unchanged: stress-test both rate extremes, balancing earnings stability from duration against portfolio-loss risk.

• The long-standing preference to avoid longer-dated investments reflected an infrastructure-investment thesis, though current market pricing made that stance harder to maintain.

• HTM hedging could ease duration constraints, reduce the need for CET1 buffers against AOCI volatility and permit somewhat more low-credit-risk exposure in HTM.

Deposits and risk outlook

• The 2022–23 rate cycle featured unseasoned deposits and newly active rate-seeking, with the impact mainly appearing through deposit-balance normalization.

• Deposit balances now track payment volumes and security-services balances; stress testing covers a break in the rate range and unprecedented policy-rate levels.

• Agentic AI could gradually raise deposit velocity; checking convenience remains important, while higher deposit beta could reduce banks’ demand for duration-bearing assets and credit.

• A rapid repricing to higher rates was the main rate concern, with potential confidence effects, liability chasing and nonlinear system outcomes; a generic slowdown was viewed as manageable for income over that policy period.

Regulation and capital

• Stress-test transparency and averaging two scenarios were welcomed; the Fed estimated a ~20 bps system impact, while greater predictability could make more capital usable.

• GSIB rule changes were praised for smoothing and smaller buckets; priorities were full coefficient recalibration and a clear policy rationale for any short-term wholesale funding change.

• Proposed rules could make some low-risk intermediation uneconomic; broad client relationships would still be served, though marginal pullback from the activity could follow.

• The through-cycle dividend remained the sole capital-distribution commitment; double-digit RWA growth and organic deployment opportunities supported retaining capital and moderating buybacks.

• SLR cleanup was described as timely, helping support infrastructure financing and balance-sheet intermediation over the prior 18 months.