Kelsian Group (KLS) H2 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved record FY24 results with revenue up 42.2% to $2,016.8 million, driven by the first full-year contribution from AAAHI, new Sydney contracts, and improved margins in the Australian bus business.

• Underlying EBITDA rose 63.9% to $265.4 million; NPATA increased 32.3% to $92.6 million; EPSA increased 13.3% to $0.34.

• Strong operating cash flow supported significant investments in fleet, infrastructure, and strategic property.

• Integration of AAAHI in the US exceeded expectations, with 100% contract renewal, organic expansion, and new sector/geography entry.

• Transit Systems became the largest operator in Sydney after successful transition of new bus regions.

Financial highlights

• Revenue increased 42.2% year-over-year to $2,016.8 million, mainly from AAAHI and new Sydney contracts.

• Underlying EBITDA up 63.9% to $265.4 million; margin improved to 13.2%.

• Underlying NPATA up 32.3% to $92.6 million; EPSA up 13.3% to $0.34.

• Net operating cash flow up 13.6% to $146.5 million; cash conversion at 92.3%.

• Fully franked final dividend of 9.5 cents per share, full year 17.5 cents (up from 17.0 cents in FY23).

Outlook and guidance

• FY25 underlying EBITDA guidance: $283–$295 million, with a second-half skew and further earnings growth expected.

• CapEx for FY25 forecast at $180–$190 million, with over half being one-off investments; expected to normalize to ~$100 million from FY26.

• Full-year contributions expected from new Sydney contracts, Bankstown rail replacement, and AAAHI growth.

• Depreciation forecast at $117 million and interest at $59 million for FY25; effective tax rate estimated at 20–22%.

• Guidance assumes stable operating environment, tourism, labour, and input prices.