KeyCorp (KEY) UBS Financial Services Conference 2026 summary

Business performance and growth strategy

• Commercial banking generated $2.1 billion in revenue in 2025, about a third of total revenue, and provided 40% of overall deposits.

• Serves approximately 5,000 middle market clients across 30 markets, targeting businesses with $10MM–$1B in revenue and addressing a total market of over 200,000 U.S. middle market businesses.

• Middle-market and payments businesses have national reach, with less than 3% market share and significant growth runway; middle market loan pipelines up 54% by 2025.

• Middle-market franchise consistently delivers high-teens to low-twenties ROE, with 2025 average ROE at ~9%; commercial payments revenue grew 9% annually over five years.

• Recent expansions in Chicago and Southern California doubled customer and deposit growth rates compared to the rest of the portfolio.

Client relationships and product penetration

• 98% of middle-market deposits come from clients with operating accounts; 90% have at least one deposit or payment product, and over 50% have three or more products.

• Payments business has grown at an 8% CAGR from 2019 to 2025, with 9% growth in 2025, and processes ~$7T in annual volume.

• Embedded banking business doubled in 2025 and is expected to double again in 2026, leveraging technology partnerships.

• Investments in product development, fintech partnerships, and embedded banking drive innovation and client integration.

• Middle market revenue up 26% and deposits up 60% from 2019 to 2025.

Market outlook and competitive positioning

• Middle-market clients remain resilient despite macro shocks, with 77% optimistic about their own business and benefiting from technology and CapEx incentives.

• CapEx themes include expanding production lines, new geographies, and increased M&A interest as bid-ask spreads narrow.

• 2026 loan growth guidance is 5%-6%, above market expectations, with continued outperformance anticipated.

• Differentiation comes from industry expertise, holistic service, and a direct-drive incentive model for bankers.

• Private capital is not seen as a core competitor for commercial clients; focus remains on relationship-driven banking.