Kion Group (KGX) Pre-Close Call summary

Executive summary

• Q3 2025 is tracking as a typical seasonal quarter, with sequential declines in orders but year-over-year growth due to a low prior-year base, especially in EMEA and APAC.

• Group order intake is expected to be higher year-over-year, with revenue marginally up both sequentially and year-over-year.

• Adjusted EBIT is likely to decline sequentially and year-over-year, mainly due to higher long-term incentive expenses linked to share price increases.

• Net income is projected to be around 30% higher than the prior year and prior quarter, driven by a tax gain from a German corporate tax rate cut.

• Free cash flow remains solidly positive but lower than last year due to additional pension funding.

Trading performance and revenue trends

• ITS order intake in units is up year-over-year but down sequentially by a mid-teens percentage, reflecting normal seasonality.

• Order intake value growth lags unit growth as new truck business outpaces service growth for the first time in years.

• ITS revenue is expected to be marginally below the prior year, with book-to-bill slightly below one.

• SCS order intake shows year-over-year growth but is expected to remain below EUR 1 billion in Q3 and Q4.

• SCS revenue is benefiting from recent order recovery, with both year-over-year and sequential increases anticipated.

Profitability and margins

• ITS adjusted EBIT margin is set for a substantial but temporary decline in 2025 due to lower factory utilization and reduced pricing from 2024 orders.

• Q3 ITS margins are expected to be lower year-over-year, with only mild changes versus Q2, reflecting ongoing margin pressure.

• SCS adjusted EBIT is expected to increase strongly year-over-year, though the growth rate will be lower than in the previous quarter.

• Group adjusted EBIT will decline sequentially and year-over-year, mainly due to higher long-term incentive expenses.