Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) Q3 2026 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q3 production fell 19% to 7.5 Mt, mainly due to the planned Sishen DMS shutdown for the UHDMS tie-in; sales rose 3% to 10.0 Mt, supported by finished-stock drawdown.

• Production and sales remain on track for FY2026 guidance of 31–33 Mt and 35–37 Mt, respectively.

• Safety performance improved, with YTD TRIFR at 0.85 versus 0.97 in YTD 2025; fatality-free production records continued at Sishen and Kolomela.

Financial highlights

• YTD realised FOB export price was US$86/wmt, down from US$94/wmt in YTD 2025, but remained 9% above the US$79/wmt benchmark.

• YTD sales were 28.512 Mt, up 1% YoY; YTD production was 25.186 Mt, down 8% YoY.

• Finished stock declined to 4.8 Mt from 7.0 Mt in Q2 2026 as inventories supplemented sales during the Sishen shutdown.

Outlook and guidance

• FY2026 production guidance remains 31–33 Mt, including ~22 Mt at Sishen and ~10 Mt at Kolomela; sales guidance is 35–37 Mt, expected at the upper end.

• FY2026 waste-mining guidance was reduced to 175–190 Mt from 180–195 Mt; Kolomela guidance fell to 40–45 Mt from 45–50 Mt, while Sishen remains 135–145 Mt.

• C1 unit-cost guidance remains ~US$45/t at R16.50/US$; Sishen is expected toward the upper end of R530–560/t and Kolomela toward the lower end of R430–460/t.

• FY2026 capital expenditure guidance is R13.2–14.2bn; cost guidance is subject to Middle East conflict impacts on key inputs and logistics performance.