Kumba Iron Ore (KIO) Q4 2025 TU earnings summary

Executive summary

• Achieved a fatality-free record exceeding nine years at Sishen and two years at Kolomela, with a total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.95 for 2025, reflecting a strong safety culture.

• Production increased by 10% to 8.6 Mt in Q4 2025 year-over-year, and full-year output rose 1% to 36.1 Mt, supported by operational stability and asset reliability improvements.

• Sales volumes softened 5% in Q4 2025 but increased 2% for the full year to 37.0 Mt, aided by improved logistics and collaboration with Transnet.

• Average realised FOB export iron ore price was US$95/wmt, outperforming the benchmark by 12% for the year.

Financial highlights

• Headline earnings for 2025 expected between R13,856 million and R15,330 million, with HEPS between R43.22 and R47.81, up 11% to 23% year-over-year.

• Basic earnings projected between R13,734 million and R15,195 million, with EPS between R42.83 and R47.39, reflecting a change from -7% to +3% compared to the prior year.

• Prior year basic earnings and EPS included a one-time impairment reversal at Kolomela.

Outlook and guidance

• Production guidance for 2026 is 31–33 Mt, lower than 2025 due to UHDMS project tie-in; sales guidance for 2026 is 35–37 Mt, including planned stock drawdown.

• Production guidance for 2027 and 2028 is set at 35–37 Mt.