Lam Research (LRCX) Citi’s 2026 Global TMT Conference summary

Market outlook and industry trends

• WFE expectations for 2024 have increased to the low $150 billion range, driven by strong AI demand and creative use of existing clean room capacity.

• Eight to ten new tier one fabs are expected to come online by the end of 2027, supporting continued growth.

• AI demand is expanding from training to inferencing and Physical AI, reinforcing the need for further investment.

• Clean room space remains the primary constraint for industry growth, with some improvement expected next year.

• Top-down and bottom-up modeling indicate growth will likely continue into 2025 and possibly 2028.

Product innovation and market share

• New products like Akara, Vantex, and ALTUS Halo are driving performance gains and expanding market share, especially in foundry and logic.

• SAM share has accelerated to over 36%, with further upside expected from advanced packaging and gate-all-around technology.

• Advanced packaging business is growing over 70% this year, with panel-level packaging transition supported by organic R&D.

• Selective etch and Aether dry resist programs are seeing strong customer pull, with revenue opportunity expected to exceed $1.5 billion.

Supply chain and operational strategy

• Intense customer and supply chain coordination is underway to prepare for future demand, with a second Malaysia facility being accelerated.

• Efforts to densify existing facilities and increase output are ongoing, leveraging creative solutions to maximize capacity.

• Supply chain challenges are managed proactively, with robust planning and communication across all levels.