Liontown (LTR) Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum 2026 summary

Market outlook and demand trends

• Lithium demand is projected to grow at 15% annually through 2031, with some forecasts extending to 2036, driven by diversified applications including EVs, stationary batteries, robotics, marine, and humanoids, with supply lagging and a structural gap expected.

• Demand is broadening geographically, with Europe, Australia, and North America increasing uptake, and the US focusing on stationary batteries for AI and data centers.

• Market volatility is inherent due to evolving technology, customer concentration, and supply chain maturity, but is seen as a sign of high growth rather than weakness.

• Government policy and technological innovation are accelerating demand, with new battery chemistries and applications emerging.

Pricing, contracts, and supply dynamics

• Spodumene prices have rebounded sharply from AUD 630/tonne to around AUD 2,000/tonne, supporting a pivot from cash preservation to growth initiatives.

• Offtake agreements are shifting from chemical-linked indices to spodumene-referenced pricing from 2027, aligning with evolving market standards and improving pricing exposure.

• Supply growth is constrained by long lead times for new projects (5–8 years) and brownfield expansions (2–3 years), with demand expected to outpace supply, creating a structural gap.

• Supply additions will be lumpy and slow, requiring disciplined project execution to capitalize on market opportunities.

Operational strategy and expansion plans

• Strategic pivot in November 2024 slowed ramp-up and deferred capital to preserve cash during market lows, with renewed expansion following evidence of a growth cycle.

• A revised 2.8Mtpa mine plan prioritizes high-margin ore, reduces development costs, and maintains expansion flexibility, targeting a run rate by end FY27.

• Underground ore will become the dominant feed, improving grade, recovery, and operational efficiency.

• Expansion is self-funded, supported by a strong balance sheet with AUD 560–561 million in cash and nearly AUD 140 million generated in the last quarter.

• FY25 business optimization identified AUD 112 million in savings and deferrals, enhancing financial resilience.