ManpowerGroup (MAN) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 revenue was $4.4 billion, down 5% as reported and 3% in constant currency, with adjusted EBITDA of $94 million and adjusted EPS of $1.02, down 27% year-over-year in constant currency; full-year 2024 revenue was $17.9 billion, down 6% as reported and 3% in constant currency, with adjusted EBITDA of $403 million and adjusted EPS of $4.55, down 21% year-over-year.

• Net earnings for Q4 were $22.5 million, rebounding from a net loss of $84.5 million in Q4 2023; full-year net earnings were $145.1 million, up from $88.8 million in the prior year.

• Challenging conditions persisted in Europe and North America, while Asia Pacific, Latin America, and APME showed stronger demand; U.S. Manpower and Talent Solutions returned to growth in the second half of 2024.

• Strategic focus remains on diversification, digitization, and innovation to address talent shortages and drive higher-margin growth.

• Portfolio optimization continued with the sale of South Korea and Austria operations, now operating as franchises.

Financial highlights

• Q4 gross profit margin was 17.2%, down 30 basis points year-over-year; full-year gross margin was 17.3%, down 50 basis points.

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.1%, down 40 basis points year-over-year; full-year adjusted EBITDA margin was 2.3%.

• Q4 adjusted EPS was $1.02, with reported EPS at $0.47 due to restructuring and other one-time items.

• Free cash flow for 2024 was $258 million; Q4 free cash flow was $236 million.

• Days sales outstanding decreased by about three days to just under 52 days at year-end.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2025 guidance: EPS of $0.47–$0.57, with a 5–9% constant currency revenue decline (midpoint 7%), and EBITDA margin projected down 30 basis points year-over-year.

• Gross profit margin projected at 17.2–17.4%, EBITA margin at 1.4–1.6%, and operating profit margin at 1.1–1.3%.

• Effective tax rate for Q1 and full year 2025 estimated at 36%, with a 6 cent negative currency impact in Q1.

• Cautious outlook for Europe, with continued challenges expected, and seasonality plus fewer working days impacting Q1 results.