Mattel (MAT) Stifel 2024 Cross Sector Insight Conference summary

Industry outlook and macro trends

• Toy industry grew 25% from 2019 to 2022, but declined in 2023; 2024 expected to be down slightly, with improvement anticipated in 2025.

• Lighter theatrical slate and post-COVID shift to experiences have impacted demand, but these effects are expected to wane.

• Spending in the toy category remains resilient, with strong employment and moderated inflation supporting consumer health.

• Retail inventory levels normalized after being elevated in early 2024, supporting a return to historical shipment trends.

• Company expects to outpace industry growth in 2024 and reiterates full-year guidance.

Brand performance and innovation

• Barbie remains the top global doll property, boosted by the 2023 movie, and will see new product launches, digital games, and content in 2024.

• Hot Wheels achieved its sixth consecutive record year, with growth driven by innovation, adult collector expansion, and global distribution.

• Fisher-Price strategy focuses on core infant/toddler business, preschool entertainment, and exiting or licensing lower-margin segments.

• Diverse brand portfolio includes Monster High, Disney Princess, American Girl, and others, with opportunities to elevate franchise brands.

• Collaborations with major entertainment partners and new content initiatives support brand relevance and growth.

IP-driven strategy and adjacent verticals

• Expanding beyond toys into film, TV, digital gaming, publishing, and location-based entertainment to capture full IP value.

• Barbie movie success exemplifies potential for high-margin, accretive growth from entertainment initiatives.

• New hires and capabilities added across consumer products, digital, and content verticals.

• No specific financials disclosed for adjacent businesses, but plans to break out results as they scale.