Mercury NZ (MCY) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic Direction and Value Drivers

• Refreshed strategy focuses on value from core assets, portfolio optimization, and executable generation development options for growth over the next 5–10 years.

• Executive team restructured to align with these drivers, emphasizing operational excellence, customer value, and disciplined capital allocation.

• Strong emphasis on leveraging a diversified generation portfolio (hydro, geothermal, wind) and expanding retail through bundling and digital transformation.

• Targeting 1 million customer connections by FY 2028 and maintaining a 25–26% retail market share.

• Commitment to progressive dividend policy and long-term TSR above 10%, with 16 consecutive years of ordinary dividend growth to FY24.

Financial Guidance and Performance

• FY24 EBITDA reached NZD 877 million; FY25 guidance set at NZD 760 million due to a historically dry year.

• Targeting FY30 EBITDA/EBITDAF of NZD 1.15–1.25 billion, supported by value-accretive renewables, disciplined capex, and cost discipline.

• Operating expenses targeted at NZD 370 million through FY28, with a 30% reduction in OpEx per connection by FY28.

• Net debt expected to peak at 2.5x EBITDA, maintaining BBB+ credit rating.

• Synergies from Trustpower integration exceed NZD 40 million, with further value from technology, automation, and customer bundling.

Generation Development and Pipeline

• Three major generation projects underway, totaling 1.1 TWh, with a pipeline to deliver 3.5 TWh by 2030 and 8 TWh beyond 2030.

• Focus on wind and geothermal as primary growth technologies, with solar and BESS as flexible options and cautious entry via third-party PPAs.

• Geothermal platform offers up to 5 TWh of potential, with brownfield and greenfield opportunities under early-stage assessment.

• Hydro rehabilitation programme to add 87 GWh and 58 MW across three sites, with Karāpiro upgrade delivering 32 GWh and 16.5 MW.

• Strategic partnerships with Iwi and supply chain partners are central to project delivery and social license.