Meridian Energy (MEL) Investor Day 2025 summary

Strategic context, outlook, and scenario planning

• Sector is undergoing significant change, with security, affordability, and political focus on electricity supply and transition from gas.

• Scenario-based planning uses 'Evo/Evolution' (modest change) and 'Revo/Revolution' (rapid decarbonisation), both requiring large-scale investment in renewables, flexibility, and firming resources.

• Demand is expected to grow after 15 years of stagnation, driven by industrial decarbonisation, EV uptake, and data centers, though development barriers and efficiency gains may constrain growth.

• Mature modelling framework underpins investment, factoring in inflow uncertainty, build costs, demand, and risk of shortage.

• Flexibility and storage are increasingly valuable as intermittency rises, with hydro and demand response playing key roles.

Retail and customer strategy

• Retail growth focuses on digital transformation, data-driven customer experience, and migration to modern cloud-native platforms, including the Kraken billing system and a $30m Next Gen Retail programme.

• Smart Hot Water Plan has shifted 2,500 MWh out of peak periods, delivering NZD880,000 in customer credits.

• Ambition to build the largest EV charging network by 2028, targeting 20%+ market share and NZD20 million annual revenue by 2030, with 396 charge points operational and 118 under construction.

• Retail customer base has grown by 160,000 since 2018, with a 63% increase in net back growth and a 31% reduction in cost to serve from FY18 to FY26.

• Continued cost optimisation and scaling of mass market flex products support customer and sales volume growth.

Generation, asset management, and capital expenditure

• Generation strategy has shifted from cost optimisation to growth, flexibility, and digital transformation, targeting 300 MW new capacity and 200 MW returned by 2028.

• 112 MW of new/increased capacity delivered at low capital cost; further hydro upgrades and digital initiatives expected to deliver NZD25–45 million in value.

• Stay-in-business CapEx is expected to average NZD60–70 million annually, with periodic peaks for major projects like Waitaki and Benmore penstock upgrades; medium-term recurring spend is $40–50 million.

• Major projects include a NZD400 million Waitaki station upgrade, NZD110/111 million Benmore penstock seismic strengthening (2026–2029), and a $55 million SCADA system upgrade (go-live by mid-2027).

• Digital initiatives in generation aim to optimize maintenance, reduce outages, and leverage data for asset management.