Methanex (MX) Investor presentation summary

Financial performance and outlook

• Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose to $220M from $186M in Q4'25, driven by higher realized prices.

• Average realized methanol price for April and May 2026 expected at $500–$525/MT.

• Q2 EBITDA expected to be significantly higher, with some cost increases recognized in Q3 due to inventory timing.

• 2026 equity production guidance reiterated at ~9.0M methanol tonnes and 0.3M ammonia tonnes.

• Strong liquidity with $600M revolving credit facility and $379M cash balance as of March 2026.

Strategic priorities and business model

• Focus on safety, efficiency, and reliability, with zero Tier 1 process safety incidents and lost-time injuries in 2025.

• Integration of OCI Global's methanol assets on track, expected to boost production and cash flow.

• Capital allocation prioritizes sustaining investments, deleveraging, and opportunistic share buybacks.

• Disciplined approach to free cash flow deployment, targeting 2.0–2.5x leverage.

Market dynamics and competitive positioning

• Methanol demand forecast to grow ~3% CAGR over five years, with 2026 demand near 100M MT.

• Limited new capacity additions expected, leading to a potential supply gap of 2–4M MT by 2029.

• Competitive cost position due to North American gas supply and integrated logistics.

• Holds ~20% market share in internationally traded methanol, with production and sales in all major regions.