Methanex (MX) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 average realized price was $351/ton, with 2.2 million tons of produced methanol sales, generating adjusted EBITDA of $220 million and adjusted net income of $23 million, up from Q4 2025 due to higher prices.

• Net loss attributable to shareholders was $14 million for Q1 2026, a significant improvement from a net loss of $89 million in Q4 2025, mainly due to higher realized prices and lower depreciation, partially offset by share-based compensation expenses.

• Equity methanol production totaled 2.4 million tons, slightly higher than Q4, with strong U.S. operations and stable Egypt output.

• Cash flows enabled repayment of $60 million of Term Loan A, ending Q1 with nearly $380 million in cash and $14 million returned to shareholders via dividends.

• Middle East conflict since late February has disrupted global methanol supply, especially impacting Asian and Chinese markets reliant on Middle East imports.

Financial highlights

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026 was $220 million, with adjusted net income of $23 million.

• Average realized price increased to $351/ton from $331/ton in Q4 2025.

• Revenue for Q1 2026 was $974 million, up from $969 million in Q4 2025.

• Cash position at quarter-end was nearly $380 million after $60 million debt repayment.

• Adjusted free cash flow was $31 million, compared to $91 million in Q4 2025.

Outlook and guidance

• Q2 earnings and cash flows projected to be significantly stronger than Q1, assuming current price levels and similar sales volumes.

• Expecting average realized prices of $500–$525/ton for April and May 2026, indicating a significant price increase into Q2.

• Projected 2026 production of 9.0 million tons of methanol and 0.3 million tons of ammonia, with actual output subject to gas availability and operational events.

• Delayed recognition of higher natural gas and ocean freight costs will impact Q3 results due to inventory flow timing.

• 2026 priorities: safe operations, OCI integration, and deleveraging; plan to repay $290 million term loan in Q2.