Metsä Board (METSB) Q1 2026 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q1 2026 results reflect challenging market conditions, with sales declining to €393.7 million due to lower U.S. volumes, weak pulp demand, adverse FX, and price declines, but transformation actions have delivered €100 million in annual run-rate EBITDA improvement, with €30 million realized.

• A new strategy, launched in March 2026, sharpens business focus on premium packaging, operational excellence, and profitability, with growth in consumer packaging as a secondary focus.

• Transformation programme has achieved about 50% of its targeted €200 million EBITDA improvement on a run-rate basis, with full impact expected by 2028.

• Operational steering prioritizes cash flow and tight capital discipline, with working capital temporarily elevated due to seasonal inventory build-up and mill shutdown preparations.

• Acquisition of sheeting capacity in the Netherlands and launch of a packaging design studio in Milan aim to enhance European service capabilities and innovation.

Financial highlights

• Q1 2026 sales were €393.7 million, down 18% year-over-year, with comparable EBITDA at €16.7 million (4.2% margin), and comparable operating result at -€10.8 million (-2.7% margin).

• Earnings per share were -€0.04 (Q1 2025: -€0.02); return on equity was -3.9%.

• Cash flow from operations was -€71 million, impacted by increased working capital.

• Total investments in Q1 2026 were €14 million, mainly for business acquisitions and maintenance.

• Insurance compensation in Q4 2025 (Kemi incident) was a one-time positive item.

Outlook and guidance

• Packaging demand remains subdued due to weak consumer sentiment and overcapacity in Europe, but paperboard delivery volumes are expected to increase in Q2 2026.

• Cash flow is expected to strengthen as inventories are reduced post-maintenance build-up.

• Oil and gas price increases linked to Middle East conflict are expected to have a €10 million negative impact in Q2, raising logistics and chemical costs.

• Energy and wood costs are expected to decline, but fixed costs will rise due to maintenance and seasonal factors.

• Exchange rate fluctuations are expected to have a clearly negative effect in 2026.