Metsä Board (METSB) Q4 2023 earnings summary

Executive summary

• FY2023 sales were €1,941.9m and comparable operating result €122.2m, down from €2,479.6m and €520.7m, amid weaker demand, lower volumes and higher costs.

• Strong operating cash flow and working-capital discipline supported the financial position; long-term demand drivers for fibre-based packaging remained in place.

Financial highlights

• Q4 sales were €422.6m versus €599.8m; comparable operating result was €0.7m versus €100.8m, and reported operating result was -€0.2m.

• FY comparable EBITDA was €214.6m versus €614.6m; comparable operating margin was 6.3% versus 21.0%, and EPS was €0.27 versus €1.15.

• FY comparable operating result included €55m from sales of unused emission allowances, versus €29m in FY2022.

• FY operating cash flow was €342.8m versus €232.0m; free cash flow was €125m, and working capital decreased €105.8m.

• Net income was €101.6m versus €461.3m; comparable EPS was €0.27 versus €1.13.

Outlook and guidance

• Q1 2024 comparable operating result is expected to improve from Q4 2023; paperboard deliveries are expected to increase from 299,000 tonnes.

• Q1 folding boxboard prices are expected to decrease slightly, white kraftliner prices to remain stable, and pulp prices to improve, especially in Europe.

• Q1 costs excluding pulp are expected to remain stable; production adjustments and temporary mill layoffs may continue if order inflow remains low.

• FY2024 investments are estimated at the 2023 level; depreciation is expected to rise to ~€115m.