Mobileye Global (MBLY) Evercore's 9th Annual ADAS, AV & AI Forum summary

ADAS business performance and market dynamics

• Core ADAS business volume is expected to grow about 10% this year, outperforming initial guidance and top customer production trends.

• Export growth from China, especially to emerging markets with low ADAS penetration, is a key driver of incremental volume.

• Market share gains are seen with major OEMs like GM, VW, and Honda, but the biggest opportunity lies in emerging markets such as India, which is expected to benefit from new regulations in 2027.

• ADAS penetration in North America and Western Europe is nearing saturation, so future growth will rely on emerging markets.

• Premium pricing is supported by stringent safety standards and reputational risk for OEMs exporting to new markets.

Product innovation and segment leadership

• The company is leading in the fastest-growing ADAS segment: highway hands-free Level 2+ systems, projected to grow at 18% CAGR over the next few years.

• Major wins in Surround and Cloud-Enhanced ADAS programs with OEMs like VW and Stellantis, offering higher ASPs and gross margins.

• SuperVision system with Porsche launches next year, expected to be a significant proof point for advanced point-to-point systems.

• The Porsche program could reach 300,000–350,000 units annually in a few years, providing a meaningful revenue tailwind.

• Audi's Chauffeur program is on track for a Q2 2028 launch, targeting higher autonomy levels.

Robotaxi strategy and vertical integration

• Progress continues in robotaxi partnerships, with closed user group testing in Orlando and Hamburg, and expansion in L.A.

• HOLON will be the production AV partner for Deutsche Bahn, integrating AVs into German public transit.

• A vertically integrated robotaxi platform is being developed, allowing control over the sensor stack, customer experience, and cost structure.

• Plans include deploying 100–200 vehicles in a U.S. city by 2027, scaling to 17,000 over five years, with flexible business models from fleet ownership to partnerships.

• Vehicle supply will rely on OEMs like Toyota, Hyundai, VW, and Ford, with AV-ready platforms and upfitting for autonomy.