Mobileye Global (MBLY) Q4 2024 earnings summary

Executive summary

• Q4 2024 results aligned with expectations, with EyeQ volume up 9% sequentially, but revenue declined 23% year-over-year to $490 million due to a 20% reduction in EyeQ SoC volumes and prior inventory build-up at Tier 1 customers.

• Operating margin reached 21%, nearly five points higher than Q3, and operating cash flow for 2024 was robust at $400 million, slightly above 2023, with a strong balance sheet of $1.4 billion in cash and no debt.

• Continued high win rate for new ADAS business, including a major REM data harvesting deal, progress with Indian OEMs, and 313 ADAS program launches.

• Advanced product design wins and customer engagement expected to continue, with EyeQ6 High SoC on track for 2026 and product launches anticipated through 2025.

• Efficiency in AI and silicon design highlighted as a competitive advantage, with EyeQ6 benchmarks to be released soon.

Financial highlights

• Q4 volumes exceeded guidance due to higher Chinese OEM demand, but Q4 revenue was down 23% year-over-year; full-year 2024 revenue was $1.65 billion, down from $2.08 billion in 2023.

• Q4 2024 GAAP net loss was $71 million (EPS: $(0.09)), while adjusted net income was $107 million (Adjusted EPS: $0.13), both down sharply year-over-year.

• Q4 gross margin fell to 49% from 54% year-over-year; adjusted gross margin remained stable at 69%.

• Operating expenses decreased sequentially, reflecting LiDAR unit wind-down and other timing-related items.

• Operating cash flow for 2024 was $400 million; capex totaled $81 million.

Outlook and guidance

• 2025 revenue guidance is $1.69–$1.81 billion, with adjusted operating income expected between $175–$260 million, implying 6% and 10% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

• EyeQ volume guidance for 2025 is 32-34 million units, with conservative assumptions.

• Gross margin expected to rise by 1.5 points in 2025, mainly due to lower SuperVision revenue share.

• Q1 2025 revenue expected to be down 11% sequentially but up over 80% year-over-year, reflecting normalization after inventory digestion.

• Full-year effective tax rate projected at 20%.