Mobileye Global (MBLY) Evercore ISI ADAS, AV and AI Summit summary

Strategic objectives and business outlook

• Focus on maintaining core ADAS business profitability and deepening customer relationships through advanced product design wins.

• Execution of EyeQ6-based programs, with SuperVision launching on VW vehicles in 2026 and Chauffeur in late 2026 or early 2027.

• Phase two (2027–2030) aims to scale advanced products across multiple automakers, targeting a mix of SuperVision, Surround ADAS, and core ADAS volumes.

• The product portfolio is modular, enabling tailored solutions for different automaker needs and regulatory requirements.

• The company’s North Star remains autonomous vehicle technology, with incremental product launches along the way.

Market dynamics and regional challenges

• Nearly 100% of RFQs outside China have been won, locking in ADAS business with top customers through 2032–2033.

• New European NCAP regulations for 2028 will require more sensors and processing, increasing revenue per unit.

• In China, local competitors have driven a race-to-the-bottom on price, leading to market share loss and a focus on export-oriented business.

• The auto industry is bifurcating into separate China and non-China markets, with different technology and pricing dynamics.

• China’s share of revenue has dropped from 30% to 15% in the second half, with domestic OEMs now only 4% of revenue.

Financial framework and growth drivers

• Short-term focus is on meeting market expectations and securing new design wins for advanced products.

• SuperVision RFQs in process could yield 250,000–300,000 units per year per customer, adding $0.18–$0.19 EPS per program at scale.

• Surround ADAS RFQs target about 1 million units per year per customer, contributing $0.08–$0.09 EPS per customer.

• Market segmentation is emerging, with premium automakers allocating higher shares to advanced systems.

• Timelines for new programs have faced delays, but recent progress and competitive pressure are accelerating decisions.